Claire Trevett: Labour now at risk of collapse, driving voters to the Greens

OPINION

David Parker and Grant Robertson might just be feeling a little bit smug right now – the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll out on Thursday suggests Chris Hipkins’ captain’s call to scrap a
plan for a wealth tax has done wonders … for the Green Party.

The Curia Taxpayers’ Union poll has Labour plummeting – down a whopping four points and back into the 20s, at 27 per cent. That is well below that critical psychological 30 per cent mark – the mark above which Labour’s team can still try to hold together the shreds of morale.

It seems to have been prompted by a large exodus of voters to the Green Party, which picked up 3.1 per cent. The only thing that’s happened lately to send Labour voters straight to the arms of the Greens instead is that call to scrap the wealth tax.

On Sunday Labour will try to salvage what remains of its dignity on tax. That seems certain to be a plan to remove GST from fruit and vegetables. If that is indeed the centrepiece, it has been spoiled by National’s premature announcement of it. That will both reduce its impact – and has allowed plenty of time for the critics to pan the move.

Hipkins is left facing ‘what might have been’ questions. What would the response be had he forged ahead with that initial tax switch: the tax-free income threshold, paid for by a wealth tax?

Fair enough to rule out bringing it in by surprise in a Budget – but what might have been had he still decided to put it up as campaign policy instead of ruling it out forever more.

Would he have lost votes in the centre? Deciding not to do it certainly had not won him any votes in the centre, and instead he has peeved off enough of Labour’s base to send them running to the Greens and NZ First instead.

It has enraged traditional Labour voters. One long-standing, loyal Labour voter told me this week he was so angry that he was voting Green.

Labour is now at risk of a collapse – if it cannot change things quickly, it will be riding into the election with a goal of not getting a third term, but of holding on to enough of its base to avoid a low to mid-20s result, and a much-shrunken caucus.

To add insult to injury, National’s leader Christopher Luxon has pulled up and is now even with Hipkins as preferred Prime Minister.

The only bad news for National in that poll is the result for NZ First – above the 5 per cent mark.

Yes, Winston is down the end of Comeback Street – and that could be heartbreak hotel for National and Act. Whether he ends up in a kingmaker position or in Opposition, he will not make life easy for them.

But that is nothing compared to the bad news delivered to Labour.