Maybe the excitement of Facebook has faded, but that doesn’t mean Meta is in a downward spiral.
You don’t have to look far on the world wide web to read or watch the tech experts, the social media watchers or the disenchanted keyboard warriors predicting the demise of Facebook, and along with it, its parent company, Meta.
This week it was a New York Times column, reprinted in the New Zealand Herald, headlined “Meta is Dying. It’s About Time.”
In no uncertain terms, investigative journalist Julia Angwin lays out the reasons for the predicted demise – the story is ironically being promoted on Facebook.
“This is a company entering its zombie era,” she says, pointing out its failed US$80 billion (NZ$136.1b) investment in virtual reality, “creepy” US$500 (NZ$850) smart glasses, the backlash against cramming ads onto the platform, the fraud and scams that go seemingly unchecked and a so-far unsuccessful venture into creating its own AI.
Last quarter, the number of daily active users across Meta’s businesses, including Instagram and WhatsApp, declined for the first time to 3.56 billion, from 3.58b.
But at the same time Facebook also commands an incredible 20 percent of the global advertising dollar.
Advertisers are well aware of the power the platform commands.
Vaughn Davis is the creative director of ad agency The Goat Farm, has a strong interest in social media and has written a book about Twitter.
When asked about the dying throes of Facebook he said; “is that headline from 2026, or is it from 2018, or is it from 2013?”
“Because in 2013 I found a headline ‘Teens in the UK say Facebook is Dead’; 2018, ‘The Website That Defined a Generation is Dying a Slow Death’ – the predictions have been around almost as long as Facebook has been around.
“It’s fashionable to say that no one under 50 is on Facebook, and certainly Facebook skews older, but if you want the largest quantum of New Zealanders or Americans or English people – just any nationality, of almost any demographic – you’re going to find them, still, on Facebook.
“So on Instagram, TikTok, whatever, the proportion of young people might be higher, but there’s still a larger number of young people on Facebook than you’ll find in other places … which is why it remains attractive to advertisers like my clients.”
And Davis says the teenagers who in 2013 said Facebook is dead are probably on it now, showing off their baby photos or sharing their conspiracy theories.
On The Detail today he walks through the reasons why the platform will be around for a while yet, and why we remain addicted.
When it comes to Meta’s financial mistakes, Davis says it’s like the theory of 100 bonfires. A company with such massive resources can afford to sink cash into a number of ventures to see which take off.
“In their case perhaps they’ve looked at five or six bonfires rather than a hundred, but when you’ve got the financial resources they have, you can afford to make these gambles.”
He says there’s no real sign of Facebook’s demise, in that it’s continuing to diversify and it’s continuing to grow.
Yes the ads are annoying – but he has a different take on that.
“If every post you saw on Facebook was great, and you enjoyed it, and you went, ‘yeah I really like that’, you wouldn’t stick around.
“If every lotto ticket you bought returned you $1.10 on your dollar, you’d never buy another lotto ticket.
“It’s the losses that make the wins feel more visceral and enjoyable.
“So Facebook, Instagram, TikTok operate on what’s called a Variable Ratio Reinforcement Schedule. So you don’t get a goody all the time, you get a goody every now and then.
“And in between there’s scrolling, isn’t there?”
The platform, he says, is “sticky” – you have a group of friends on it you might only know through Facebook, and leaving that network is problematic.
‘You can say what you like about the platform, you can say what you like about the AI slop that’s being served up, or the deliberately controversial content that’s surfaced because it’s going to get engagement … but it’s a bit like that boring old pub down the road.
“You’d rather go somewhere trendy, you’d rather go to the new place in town, the new rooftop bar. But if all your mates and all your family, all your old work colleagues are at the dirty old pub down the road … I’ll go to the dirty old pub down the road.”
Check out how to listen to and follow The Detail here.
You can also stay up-to-date by liking us on Facebook or following us on Twitter.