Susan
Edmunds, Money Correspondent
Do
we really have a ‘brain drain’ and is it a
problem?
New research from Koi Tū Centre for Informed
Futures, has argued gaps in the data and too-simplistic
analysis could be limiting New Zealanders’ understanding of
migration trends.
The paper by Sir Peter Gluckman,
Georgia Lala and Christoph Grant notes between 2021 and
2025, annual
New Zealand citizen departures rose from around 26,000
to 64,000. That lifted from 0.44 percent of the population
in 2021 to 1.34 percent of the population in 2025.
But
it says this is not unprecedented and migration patterns
need to be understood in a broader historical and economic
context.
“Historical patterns in New Zealand suggest
that the recent uptick in departures may simply be a part of
a wider cyclical pattern, rather than a clear sign of a
structural deviation from historical norms.”
It said
there had been previous increases in times of economic
stability like the 1978 oil crisis, 1987 stock market crash
and the 2008 global financial crisis.
“Migration
decisions are shaped by a range of push and pull factors.
Yet the ebbs and flows of New Zealand citizen migration
reflect the reality that, in a globalised world, people can
and will move if mobility is an option and offshore outlooks
appear better. Conversely, movement may restrict if outlooks
appear better onshore, suggesting it is possible that we are
not in a brain drain ‘crisis’ but rather a sustained cycle
of movement.”
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The report said the share of people
departing who were aged 20 to 34 rose from 41 percent to 43
percent between 2021 and 2025 but that was just a return to
historical averages.
“Youth mobility is a prominent
part of Kiwi culture, and high mobility amongst young adults
is not, on its own, a cause for concern. If those departing
New Zealand elect to return home after some time working or
studying abroad, they can bring with them new skills,
experiences, ideas and networks.
“The question of
whether there is an accelerated brain drain is largely
dependent on whether those departing New Zealand will return
at some point in the future.”
Infometrics chief
executive Brad Olsen said migration had been talked about in
a way that made it sound like something “wildly unusual and
debilitating to the economy’ in the past couple of
years.
“That’s not necessarily true. The number of
people leaving has been high. It hasn’t been off-the-charts
high.
“And more importantly … all the times that
you’ve seen these record high or near record high departure
numbers, you’ve still had more people coming into New
Zealand than leaving.”
The report noted that despite
an increase in emigration since 2021, immigration had made
up for the losses since New Zealand fully reopened its
borders.
“Based on publicly available data and the
formal definition of a brain drain, we cannot say for
certain whether New Zealand is experiencing a brain drain
‘crisis’, nor whether any such trend is short-term or
long-term … Although immigration currently offsets
emigration, immigration remains volatile in the global
competition for talent. Net flows of skills and educational
attainment in and out of New Zealand also remain unclear …
What is clear, however, is that the public and political
narratives concerning a brain drain are grounded in limited
data and its selective interpretation, as well as a failure
to acknowledge both the valuable skills immigrants bring
into the country and the historically cyclical nature of New
Zealand emigration.”
Gluckman said people had been moving
between Australia and New Zealand for decades.
“We
simply do not have sufficient data or understanding of the
people leaving New Zealand to be certain about the nature or
nuances of the issue,” he said.
“The current migration
patterns do not appear to exceed historical episodes, but
that does not mean we should be complacent. We need to
better understand what is happening and continue to find
ways to make New Zealand an attractive place to live, work
and build a future.
“Even the terminology ‘brain
drain’ may be misleading: the educational levels of migrants
are very similar to those of our population and may be
higher than those leaving although the data is very
uncertain.
“Let’s get past the histrionics and let’s
get the data. A more constructive approach is needed if we
are to fully understand our migration patterns, particularly
our emigrating population.”
Olsen said the level of
arrivals was high considering the labour market was
relatively weak.
“The unemployment rate is above 5
percent … So, there’s sort of this question over what’s
driving all these migration flows?
“Why have we got
such a strong pull still of people to come into New Zealand?
When we talk to businesses, it’s around skills gaps and
mismatches and the likes. So, there’s a lot of those
different elements playing through. The other one, and it’s
a drum that we’ve been beating for a long time as well, we
have a pretty good idea of who comes into New Zealand. Not
fully for absolutely every person, but we’ve got a pretty
good idea around the likes of occupations and broad skills
that people might be bringing in. We have no idea who we’re
losing. We don’t ask people when they leave what they’re
taking with them.”
He said that was a blind spot for
the country.
“This entire conversation also sort of
ties into a wider conversation that came through politically
on Friday around the likes of fees free and similar, which
is we’re still not sort of making it as strong of a
connection between the likes of New Zealand’s migration
system and our education system and everything
else.
“We still don’t have a national skills plan that
says we need these skills and this talent going forward, and
therefore we need to incentivise those groups to be trained
up. But there’s hope that with the scrapping of fees free
and talk of a more focused, targeted approach, there’s
greater potential to look at some of those options and go,
look, these are sort of skills that we think we might be
losing or that we know that we need into the future. So,
therefore, let’s fund them through into either further
study, trades, whatever it might be, so that we have the
right skills when the economy needs
it.”
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