Māori are turning to the Greens for their party vote with a new poll revealing a change described by commentators as ‘massive’.
“This is huge – it’s like sitting in Taupō when an earthquake goes off,” says former MP Tau Henare.
Veteran journalist Tina Wickliffe says the result is “massive” and like nothing she has seen before amongst Māori voters.
“It’s because I think [the Greens] have come out swinging right from the get go,” she says.
“They’ve been relentless about the cost of living crisis that we are in, and we cannot underestimate how acute it is.”
A Mata-Horizon poll shows growing support for the Greens amongst Māori voters enrolled on both the Māori and general rolls.
Results are revealed in a special episode of Mata Reports.
The impact is most evident in the Māori roll, where the Green Party came out on top when participants were asked who they intended casting their party vote for in the 7 November election.
Twenty-eight percent opted for the Greens, ahead of Labour on 27%, Te Pāti Māori (16%), and Opportunity (6%). National, NZ First, ACT, and Te Tai Tokerau Party were all below 5%.
Nine percent said they were undecided, and another 3% said they wouldn’t vote. Among Māori on the general roll, Labour was preferred by 38% and the Greens by 17%.
National was on 11%, NZ First 10% and Opportunity 6%. Te Pāti Māori was on 2%, behind ACT on 4%. Undecideds were at 8% and 3% said they wouldn’t vote.
Even though the Greens trailed Labour amongst general roll Māori voters, the poll revealed the Greens had seen the biggest shift since the last election.
Green Party support increased 17% among Māori roll voters and 7% among those on the general roll. Labour was steady, up 1% in the Māori roll and 2% in the general roll.
The result will be another boost to the Greens, coming after it climbed to its highest level ever recorded in the recent 1News Verian poll, 16%.
The party’s strong showing in the Mata Horizon poll was particularly evident in electorates such as Waiariki where candidate Tania Waikato has been prominent.
Rangatahi leader Maringi James said Waikato’s campaign would be playing a part, but so too would be the impact of strategic voting, in particular Te Pāti Māori’s “one-tick” push, encouraging support for the electorate vote only.
“Waiariki has always been a stronghold of Te Pāti Māori, and I think our messaging about [strategic voting] has been pretty clear. Knowing that we’re allowed to vote for another party – I think that message is definitely coming through,” says James.
She wasn’t surprised that the Greens were benefiting.
“I think the policies align and even just not with Tania Waikato, but the lineup of Māori that they have, nine out of their top 20 being Māori. I think that they’re starting to reflect us a little bit better.”
Public Service Association Te Kaihautū Māori Jack Tautokai McDonald says the poll reflects strategic voting, but also that Te Pāti Māori has a lot of work to do to win back people’s trust.
“Voters are disaffected by the Māori party given all the raruraru over the last few years,” says McDonald.
The poll was also a wake-up call for Labour.
“Labour needs to come to the table with some actual bold, transformative policies,” says McDonald.
“People are sick and tired of the status quo. We’ve had close to 10 years of a cost of living crisis and people are really struggling just to make ends meet. And so if Labour doesn’t actually recognise that and front up with some policies that are going to put money in people’s back pockets, then they’re going to struggle.”
The extent of the cost of living crisis was evident in another result from the Mata Horizon survey.
Poll participants were asked if they’d had to borrow money or use buy now pay later services to purchase essential items such as groceries, power, rent, mortgage payments or petrol.
More than a third said yes.
Asked if they could pay an unexpected $500 expense without seeking help or borrowing, almost 40% said definitely not or probably not.
Wickliffe says those results show why the Greens are getting cut-through.
“With their policies, people can imagine them making an immediate impact in their life. [This] poll showed us that cost of living is worse than we thought.”
Henare noted that parties on the centre right had not done well, which did not surprise him or the other commentators.
He was interested, though, in the position of Opportunity and predicted they would “have their hand on the tiller” after the election, sitting in a king-maker position.
Wickliffe says Māori voters may be reacting to Opportunity’s citizen’s income policy and its superannuation proposals.
“Let’s be blunt here: nevermind the ‘butter chicken’ tsunami, there’s going to be a tsunami of Pākehā pensioners. Who’s gonna pay for that? It’s going to be Gen Z Māori, because disproportionately we don’t live as long. So what [Opportunity] is offering could be drawing some interest.”
With more than a month until the election, though, Henare had a warning for all parties.
“There’s still plenty of time for things to run off the rails.”
This episode was recorded prior to the passing of The Right Honourable Adrian Rurawhe. E te rangatira Adrian, ko te aunga o te moe ki a koe.
The poll had 1089 Māori respondents aged 18 plus, surveyed between September 8- 18. The sample was weighted on age, gender, region and 2023 voting and electorate roll. The overall margin of error was ±3%. Made with the help of Te Māngai Pāho & NZ on Air
This story was first published on rnz.co.nz.