Budget 2024: Where are the billions of dollars for tax cuts coming from? What we know so far

This was revealed in Willis’ mini-Budget in December, and includes:

This also includes about
5000 job losses or disestablished roles following public service bosses being asked to find 6.5 to 7.5 per cent in savings, and ministers going line-by-line through departmental spending.

A small proportion of these roles would have occurred regardless of a change in government due to organisational changes that would have happened anyway. Yesterday Willis said there were 2250 fewer roles and 1150 vacancies that won’t be filled following ministers’ and chief executives’ review of government spending, with “just over” 500 further roles identified in addition to the baseline exercise. This totals 3900 roles/vacancies.

Willis said there were more than 240 “initiatives… many of which we had never heard of before” – and which will be detailed on Thursday – that had either had some funding cut or been axed altogether. These have “freed up considerable cash” to pay for tax relief, and also for more teachers, the boost to Gumboot Friday, and for Surf Life Saving. It has also allowed programmes that had time-limited funding – including for Pharmac and for school lunches – to continue to be funded.

She said “hundreds” of frontline roles will be added including teachers, health workers, police, Corrections officers, and road maintenance crews (to fill potholes), and overall job creation will “likely” outweigh job reduction.

The public service cuts/savings include:

Stopping the money tap, altering programmes, avoiding future big bills

This includes refusing the $1.47b KiwiRail request to support the plan for Cook Strait’s mega-ferries. It’s unclear whether the previous Government, had it remained in power, may have also declined to throw more money at the project, or what the current Government might spend to plug the infrastructure gap (ageing ferries) that the investment was meant to fill.

The Government is claiming savings of $107m a year by delivering a no-frills school lunches programme.

Last week it stopped the First Home Grant scheme, which is expected to save $245 million over a four-year (2024-28) period, $140m of which is allocated to community housing providers to deliver 1500 new social housing places.

And the Government has stopped Auckland Light Rail and the Lake Onslow hydro scheme, both of which held significant fiscal liability risk ($15b for the former, $16b for the latter). This leaves the Government without the transport benefits in Auckland if light rail had ever been completed, or the safety net for the country’s energy lulls if the hydro-project had ever come to fruition.

The Government has made a series of transport announcements for Auckland, and has plans to increase energy supply. It is also possible that the cancellation of the Lake Onslow project could encourage more investment in the energy sector, given the chilling effect it was having on investment.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.