Rod
McNaughton, University
of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
Getting a first foothold on the career ladder has never
been easy for young workers.
But in the past, that
path was more visible, with advanced economies such as New
Zealand’s relying on entry-level roles to bring in new
talent and sustain the workforce over time.
A
glance at recent
job statistics suggests today’s young people face a
different reality. The unemployment rate among New
Zealand’s 15- to 24-year-olds is around 15% – higher
than in recent years and roughly triple that of the wider
working-age population.
Many of the roles through
which young people have entered the workforce – especially
junior office and administrative jobs – have
been shrinking.
With this shift has come the
erosion of a function of the labour market that is arguably
just as important as output. These on-ramps to the workforce
have also taught tomorrow’s leaders how organisations
work, how judgment develops and how capability is built
through practice.
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Take them away, and the problem
facing the economy becomes much more serious than
unemployment.
How much is AI to
blame?
There has been no shortage of dramatic
news headlines about the impact of artificial
intelligence (AI) on jobs. However, rather than eliminating
entire occupations, AI has so far been automating many of
the traditional tasks within them.
In a
global survey of 5,500 organisations last year by
US-based market analysts International Data Corporation
(IDC), 91% reported that AI had already changed or displaced
job roles.
Among the New Zealand-based employers
surveyed, more than half reported AI was driving significant
job displacement and that they were now slowing or stopping
entry-level hiring. Nearly nine in ten also expected to see
a slowdown in these roles within three years.
There
are clear reasons for these trends. Many of the tasks most
exposed to AI disruption overlap with the type of work –
predictable, repetitive or data-based – that has long been
carried out by entry-level workers.
As these tasks
have become automated, roles have been redesigned. Firms
need fewer people to handle routine work and more who can
operate in complex, less structured environments from day
one.
Recent US evidence points in the same
direction. One
report from AI firm Anthropic found little sign of
widespread job losses among highly exposed occupations, but
it did indicate that hiring has slowed for younger workers
trying to enter them.
Why entry-level jobs
matter
AI may be worsening the pressure on young
workers, but it is not the only force at play.
In
New Zealand and many similar economies, more young people
are completing higher education, increasing the number entering
the labour market at the same time. That means more
people are competing for jobs, so both employment levels and
the unemployment rate can be high at the same
time.
This also helps explain why qualifications
alone are no longer enough to stand out. Employers are
increasingly looking for practical skills and real-world
experience, rather than just degrees.
But it also
creates an obvious chicken-and-egg problem: if entry-level
roles are shrinking, how are people supposed to gain that
experience in the first place?
Employers are now
well aware of this dilemma. In the IDC survey, more than
three-quarters of New Zealand respondents singled out fewer
opportunities for on-the-job learning as a major concern. A
similar share cited low awareness of AI-related roles as a
key hiring challenge.
These trends underscore that,
far from facing a simple skills gap, labour markets are
confronting a much deeper issue: how to keep open the
pathways through which people enter work and learn on the
job.
If firms are doing less of the practical work
of developing early-career talent, universities will need to
do more.
Expanding work-integrated learning and
entrepreneurship education are two ways students can build
the practical capabilities, judgement and adaptability that
are becoming harder to acquire through traditional
entry-level roles.
Even so, universities cannot
solve this problem on their own. The deeper problem is not
just whether young people can find jobs. It is whether the
labour market still offers them a way in.
Rod
McNaughton, Professor of Entrepreneurship, University
of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau
This article is republished from The Conversation
under a Creative Commons license. Read the original
article.