The 30th UN climate conference will run from
10-21 November local time in Belém,
Brazil.
Key
issues for COP30 include limiting global temperature
rise to 1.5°C, climate finance commitments, and the impacts
of climate change on vulnerable populations.
The SMC
asked experts, including a researcher who’ll be attending,
what they’re looking for at COP30.
Associate
Professor Daniel Kingston, School of Geography, University
of Otago, comments:
“The need for concerted
and meaningful action on climate change grows greater by the
year. 2024 saw the highest global mean temperature on
record, temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C warming level that
the Paris Agreement at COP21 in 2015 sought to limit
temperature increases to. In the meantime, climate change
continues to be linked to many extreme events, ranging from
new temperature records to hazards such as floods, drought,
wildfire and many more. Key aspects of the Earth system
continue to be pushed towards (and possibly beyond in the
case of coral reef systems) near-irreversible tipping
points.
“Against this backdrop of increasingly
alarming signs from the world around us, policy backslides
on climate change have been seen from many governments
around the world (including ours). Similarly, a number of
governments are either late in submitting their mandated
emission-reduction roadmaps ahead of COP30, or have
developed plans that are not compliant with the aims of the
Paris Agreement.
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“Beyond ratcheting up
emission-reduction ambitions, many other substantial issues
will be covered at the forthcoming COP30, including climate
finance and the protection of tropical rainforests. However,
the track record of climate change action from the global
community in the ten years since the Paris Agreement has
been mixed at best, leaving limited scope for optimism ahead
of this latest meeting.”
No conflicts of
interest.
Dr Jocelyn Turnbull, Principal
Scientist – Carbon Cycle, Earth Sciences New Zealand,
comments:
“The annual COP meetings are a
huge event, with governments negotiating the fine details of
how we can actually mitigate emissions, what is needed for
adaptation, how to mobilise finance, how to incorporate
voices from all communities, and many other topics. Around
those official negotiations, there is a hoopla of side
events where people from all around the world gather to talk
about climate and how they are contributing to solving the
problem. It’s a wonderful, but overwhelming, opportunity
to connect with the many people from around the world who
are doing their best to make a positive
change.
“This year in Brazil COP30 is an opportunity
to think about climate change mitigation and adaptation in
developing countries that may have fewer resources but are
also hardest hit by climate change. That’s of particular
relevance for our Pacific neighbours.
“COP30 in
Brazil highlights the importance of tropical forests in
mitigating climate change, as the Amazon is the largest and
most important tropical forest region on earth. We have seen
massive deforestation, particularly in the eastern Amazon.
This deforestation is typically accompanied by burning of
the deforested material, and has resulted in the eastern
Amazon no longer being a net sink for carbon, and instead
becoming a net source to the atmosphere (i.e. it increases
the climate problem rather than decreasing it). At the same
time, this deforestation appears to be causing drying out of
the Amazon forest, even in the western Amazon that is much
more intact, with all sorts of consequences for climate and
the environment.”
Conflict of interest statement:
“I have contributed to the Amazon carbon cycle research I
discuss here.”
Professor James Renwick,
Professor of Physical Geography, Victoria University – Te
Herenga Waka, comments:
“I have few
expectations going into the COP meeting as I don’t see the
process making much difference to reduction in greenhouse
gas emissions, despite 30 years of
talking.
“Anything that advances actual action on
emissions reductions would be welcome, as would specifics on
adaptation, and genuine pledges to contribute to the Loss
& Damage fund. It would be interesting to hear about
reactions to the ICJ ruling that countries have a legal
obligation to protect the climate system and communities
worldwide.”
Conflict of interest statement:
“None that I know of, but I worked in the UN IPCC system
for 20 years and have had other ties to UN agencies in the
past. I have no such links now.”
Dr
Priscila Besen, Senior Lecturer in Sustainable
Architecture and Urban Design at School of Future
Environments, AUT, comments:
“As someone
originally from Brazil who now teaches and researches
sustainable design in Aotearoa New Zealand, I am looking
forward to attending COP30 this November. I am optimistic
about the conference for several reasons:
- COP30
will focus on implementation and climate justice, with its
setting in a Global South country ensuring that equitable
transitions toward sustainability are at the forefront. The
choice of the city of Belém, located in the Amazon forest,
is both symbolic and strategic, spotlighting forest
protection and Indigenous rights in climate negotiations.
This year’s conference aims to move beyond dialogue and
pledges, prioritising practical, actionable outcomes.
Notably, there is an initiative to launch a global
“Mutirão”—a term from the Tupi-Guarani language
meaning “collective effort,” commonly used in Brazilian
communities for immediate group action to solve local
challenges. The call for a “Global Mutirão” seeks to
bring this spirit of local collaboration to the
international stage. - The event will feature both
top-down policy discussions and concurrent bottom-up
initiatives. The Peoples’ Summit Towards COP30 (also known
as Cúpula dos Povos) will run parallel to the official UN
climate summit, providing civil society, social movements,
and marginalised communities a platform to share their
perspectives and demands for climate justice. - It
looks like Indigenous leaders will have strong
representation in COP30 and parallel events, including a
flotilla travelling over 3,000 km along regional rivers from
Ecuador to Brazil. This fleet of Amazonian Indigenous
peoples hopes to advocate for climate policies and funding
that directly address their priorities. A group of 10
rangatahi Māori will also attend COP30, alongside many
other groups from around the world, offering a unique
opportunity to unite their voices in climate
action. - Brazil has a history of hosting significant
climate change dialogues, such as Rio Eco 92 and Rio 2012,
underscoring its longstanding role in global environmental
diplomacy. - Bringing COP30 to the Amazon opens up
substantial opportunities for the region, gathering
thousands of sustainability professionals and leaders.
Brazil currently receives relatively few foreign tourists
compared to major global destinations; expanding ecotourism
could provide sustainable livelihoods for residents and help
shift the economy away from extractive industries like
cattle farming. While many foreigners wish to “save the
Amazon,” it’s important to remember that the region is
home to large cities and millions of people. Development in
the region is a complex question; it needs to balance social
and environmental sustainability for the local communities,
ensuring they have income sources as part of a just
transition.
“However, significant challenges
remain:
- A recent decision by Brazilian
authorities to approve oil exploration licences in the
Amazon represents a significant setback in light of the
upcoming COP30 summit. From an environmental perspective,
this choice is deeply concerning. Nevertheless, this
discussion is complex, as criticism from many Global North
countries often overlooks the fact that they continue their
own oil exploration activities in various regions around the
world, frequently without facing the same degree of scrutiny
directed at Brazil. Brazil primarily relies on renewable
electricity sources, with 88.2% of its electricity generated
by renewables in 2024—a rate higher than the world average
and most OECD countries. Nevertheless, high car dependency
and slow adoption of electric transport show that further
progress is needed for full decarbonisation, and the country
may remain reliant on oil for years to come. - 2025
has been a difficult year for climate solutions, with many
countries and major corporations backtracking on previously
set climate targets. To avoid catastrophic
consequences—including mass extinction events affecting
both humanity and countless species—the global community
must urgently move from dialogue and pledges to concrete
action. This year, there were major wars taking place,
causing widespread destruction of cities, very high carbon
emissions and loss of thousands of human lives; it is not
possible to talk about a sustainable future without
addressing these issues. As the climate crisis intensifies,
communities worldwide will increasingly face tough decisions
about whether to prioritise funding for adaptation or
mitigation. Ultimately, profound changes to our lifestyles
and systems are essential to keep sustaining life on Earth
in the years ahead. We have all the solutions and
technologies needed to create a sustainable future; COP30
will be a decisive moment for the climate crisis and the
future of the next generations.”
Conflict
of interest statement: “I receive research funding from
AUT, and I have a new research fund from MBIE – NZ. I have
just started a new business selling sustainable products –
but I believe this does not cause a conflict of interest in
this
case.”
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