Is Natural Hydrogen The Way To Reach Net-Zero Carbon By 2050?

New Zealand might be sitting on a natural hydrogen
factory that could deliver a thriving multi-billion-dollar,
low-carbon hydrogen economy.

This possible
game-changing scenario will be presented by Professor Ian
Wright of University of Canterbury (UC) | Te Whare Wānanga
o Waitaha School of Earth and Environment at today’s H2 2
ZERO Summit 2025 in Wellington.

Professor Wright is
co-leading a research proposal with Professor Andy Nicol, in
partnership with the Universities of Auckland and Otago, and
GNS Science, that argues natural hydrogen could be the
energy solution needed to help meet New Zealand’s climate
change commitments. The Government is currently seeking
public feedback on proposed regulatory options for the
development of natural and orange hydrogen in
Aotearoa.

Natural hydrogen is
generated when ultramafic rocks are combined with water,
resulting in a reaction known as serpentinization. If
natural hydrogen is then trapped in geological reservoirs,
it is referred to as gold/white hydrogen. Another option is
injecting unserpentinized ultramafic rock with water in a
controlled engineering process to create serpentinization
– this is referred to as orange hydrogen.

New
Zealand is one of a few sites globally where ultramafic
ophiolite rocks are located at or near the earth’s surface
and therefore could economically generate natural hydrogen.
Professor Wright and Professor Nicol have proposed
investigating two belts of ultramafic rocks in Aotearoa
known as the Dun Mountain-Maitai Terrane and Brook St
Terrane. These ultramafic belts can be traced above ground
from Bluff, Southland, Nelson and D’Urville Island. In the
North Island these terranes can be found less than 1km
beneath Auckland, 1.5km beneath Waikato, and 3km beneath the
surface in Taranaki. The Hikurangi Margin is another known
location where sub-surface fluid flow (including possibly
hydrogen) can occur naturally and be trapped.

Previous
Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE)
economic modelling forecasts a New Zealand hydrogen industry
has a potential additional gross value of $NZ3.2 billion and
could create 16,700 jobs by 2050.

A future
source of hydrogen is needed to replace around 17% of
carbon-emitting energy that is unable to be electrified.
Another alternative is green, renewable hydrogen, but that
is likely to be costly and require high
investment.

“We are proposing that
natural hydrogen, if proven to be viable, would require less
capital investment, be cheaper, and would result in wider
industry uptake,” Professor Wright says. “It would mean
we can retain existing industries, build new industries, and
because natural hydrogen has no CO2 emissions, there might
even be ways we can lock CO2 up in the process, and create a
net reduction of CO2. Science is providing a
solution.”

New Zealand has the potential to become
world leading in this area, according to Professor Wright,
due to the country’s unique geological make up and long
history of working with geothermal systems.

Professor
Wright says the United States, Australia, and European
countries are also looking at natural hydrogen as a viable
alternative to fossil fuels to meet decarbonisation
commitments. “New Zealand has two out of the four modes
where natural hydrogen can be present,” he says. “We
also have an established understanding in subsurface
engineering and fluid flow – and we have a mindset of
solving a problem. With that capacity we could develop
natural hydrogen well.”

For New Zealand to reach net
carbon zero by 2050, an estimated 80% of the economy will
need to be electrified. The remaining 20% still requires
hydrogen as a replacement for fossil fuels, such as in
methanol production, long-haul trucking, and fuelling the
Huntly Power Station. While renewable green hydrogen
(hydropower, wind, solar) is one solution, Professor Wright
says it would require high capital investment and would cost
between $8-10 per kg. He estimates natural hydrogen could
come down to $2-4 per kg with no CO2
emissions.

“Natural hydrogen offers a
possibility to optimally decarbonise the remaining 20% of
the economy that can’t be
electrified.”

“As a nation, we have
to ask the question: If we want hydrogen, are we willing to
pay an additional $50b for every 1 million tonnes to have
renewable green hydrogen, or have another form of hydrogen
that is cheaper but not necessarily
renewable?”

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