New Zealand’s weather: What’s in store for Easter Weekend? Cold and rain ahead for some

Kiwis are in for a bumpy week of weather – and there’s no guarantee the long weekend will bring much better.

While lingering low pressure might be bad news for parents planning Easter egg hunts, a run of forecast showery fronts this week will be welcome news for rain-starved farmers and fire crews.

“It’s looking a pretty unsettled week: we’ve got an unstable west-to-southwest flow with embedded fronts that moves up over the country,” MetService meteorologist Aidan Pyselman said.

MetService has already issued severe weather watches for Fiordland, Otago, Southland for Monday night, with the potential for strong northwesterly gales in exposed places.

“As we go through the day, there’s every chance those [severe weather watches] will be upgraded or extended.”

Toward the end of the week, a front was expected to move northward, bringing more showers, wind and chillier temperatures.

Come Good Friday, Auckland temperatures were forecast to reach only the high teens, amid cooler southerly and southwesterly winds.

Pyselman said, at this stage, models indicated low pressure might continue to influence central and northern New Zealand throughout the holiday weekend, before moving off next Monday.

“But this is eight days away… and with these lows that come in from the north, the models can chop and change quite a bit.”

Despite the messy picture, some regions, including Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne, could still expect plenty of autumn sunshine and warmth this week.

For farmers, meanwhile, this week’s rain would be needed most in drought-hit Marlborough, along with inland Otago and South Canterbury.

“Grass is dead and soil moisture levels are worse than have been seen for many summers,” Federated Farmers adverse events spokeswoman Sandra Faulkner said.

“Farmers have de-stocked, remaining livestock are eating into feed that was being saved for winter, and if there isn’t some good rain soon, there won’t be that autumn flush of grass growth to help them get through winter.”

In those driest areas, she said there were now grave concerns winter crop yields would be “well down” – if those crops survived at all.

“It’s also very dry in parts of Wairarapa, and we’ve seen the Government declare a medium-scale adverse event across Marlborough, Tasman, Nelson, Canterbury and Otago.”

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said these conditions had come with the “long tail” of an El Nino climate pattern – and there was little sign of things changing greatly before winter.

“Those regions that are already struggling to cope with the dryness are going to be in for a bit more of a difficult time as we go through mid-to-late autumn.”

Many fire restrictions put in place late in summer were also likely to stay in place for weeks to come, Fire and Emergency NZ wildfire manager Tim Mitchell said.

Fire danger was likely to remain higher than normal in the North Island’s East Coast and Northland over April and May – and slightly above normal over other regions including the Bay of Plenty, Auckland, Marlborough and North Canterbury.

“We’re certainly very mindful that people do want to be able to burn, but we can’t reduce those restrictions until such time as it’s safe to do so.”

Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.