Key agenda issues at the 31st UN climate conference include transitioning to clean energy, protecting oceans, achieving zero waste, and making cities climate-resilient.
COP31 will run from 9-20 November local time in Antalya, Türkiye.
The NZ SMC asked experts (including two researchers attending COP31) to comment.
James Renwick, Professor of Physical Geography, Te Herenga Waka – Victoria University, comments:
“It is a fraught time for climate change negotiations, with the latest plenary of the IPCC suspended over disagreements, which puts the IPCC 7th Assessment process in danger. The climate is changing rapidly, and we are failing to engage with the problem.
“From COP31, I would love to see a commitment to phasing out fossil fuels globally. Facing up to the fact that fossil fuel burning is the number one cause of climate change would be an excellent step, followed by a roadmap for how to move away from them. That would give me real hope the world community is serious about tackling this massive problem. But I am not holding my breath, given the failure of the COP30 meeting to go there in 2025.”
Conflict of interest statement: “None, though I worked with the IPCC 2001-2021.”
Associate Professor Daniel Kingston, School of Geography | Te Iho Whenua, University of Otago | Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka, comments:
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“Globally, October 2026 was the warmest on record. The planet is on track for the second warmest year in the instrumental record, and the second year (after 2024) above the 1.5 °C warming threshold. The significant El Niño event currently underway is likely to mean that 2027 sets a new record for global warmth, with evidence suggesting that warming is accelerating in many parts of the world (NZ included).
“Based on current global greenhouse gas policies worldwide, analysis from United Nations Environment Programme points strongly towards overshooting the 1.5 °C threshold – so the question now moves to how long will the overshoot period last, and can we pull things back before reaching 2 °C of warming?
“Against this fairly grim backdrop, the world’s governments are about to meet at the latest annual climate summit, COP31, in Türkiye. Solutions for rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions are within our grasp – much of the necessary technology exists, and is becoming increasingly affordable. In many places though, policy support for making these changes is sorely lacking.
“Recent history of these meetings suggests that no major breakthroughs will occur at COP31 – but reinvigorated and sustained action is needed from all countries. Big emitters such as China and the USA clearly have critical roles here, but a substantial proportion of global emissions collectively come from small nations such as New Zealand – so, we all have a part to play.”
Conflict of interest statement: “I have no conflicts of interest to declare.”
Dr. Karan Titus, PhD in Renewable Energy Engineering, Postdoctoral Fellow at Civil and Environmental Department, Sustainable Energy Research Group (SERG), University of Canterbury, comments:
Note: Dr Titus will be attending COP31.
“Although somewhat controversial in recent years, COPs are important gatherings for scientists, activists, educators and entrepreneurs to raise their voices for climate action. For that reason, I am grateful to represent the University of Canterbury and New Zealand science.
“My background is in renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal – two important tools for mitigating climate change. While I’m at COP31, I’ll be looking to see how different parties look to accelerate those tools. This could be through accessing new finance mechanisms, solidifying cross-border climate cooperation, or even prioritising local community benefits. Given that the world is on track to overshoot the 1.5°C target – risking severe climate impacts – renewable energy and carbon dioxide removal are more important than ever.
“The items listed in the COP31 action agenda are promising for New Zealand and the Pacific. Some aspects are born of growing necessity, such as access to climate finance and improved community resilience. But other agenda items, such as electrification and green industry, can bring about more prosperity, jobs and even better public health outcomes.
“The world has agreed for ten years now that something must be done about climate change. How we do it, and how quickly, remains a sticking point. This will be the first time I will be close to climate negotiations between parties. The distribution of both the means to act and the urgency of risks is not equal between all parties.
“I’ll be paying close attention to how bold the appetite is for transformative action. Sometimes what is cut from the final text is as nearly as important as what makes it in. Take for example last year in Belém (Brazil), where pressure from fossil fuel producers quashed language around a transition pathway and subsidy reform.”
Conflict of interest statement: “No conflicts of interest.”
Professor Tim Naish, Chair of the World Climate Research Programme and Professor of Antarctic Science at Victoria University of Wellington, comments:
Note: Professor Naish will be attending COP31.
“My goal at this COP, as Chair of the World Climate Research Programme, is to remind Parties and Delegates of the centrality of science needed to underpin the negotiations, and especially the just transition mechanism and Global Goal on Adaptation.
“Climate science faces unprecedented threats. Funding cuts are jeopardizing research jobs, institutions, climate data and society’s ability to manage climate impacts. Disinformation is eroding public trust. Multilateral tensions and fragmenting international collaboration threaten the assessments that the UNFCCC depends on, as well the very survival of WCRP and experiments such as CMIP7 climate and sea-level projections. We will be asking Parties to safeguard the science that serves them by maintaining, or increasing, support for the research that enables informed decision-making.
“The imminent prospect of overshooting 1.5 °C will shape much of the negotiation at COP 31. We will update on the progress of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP7, which is delivering climate and sea-level projections for the new scenarios, including overshoot pathways. These are the primary source of information for IPCC Assessment Reports and climate-resilient development that all nations and sectors of society rely on.
“We will report to delegates, that despite recent uncertainties on the timing of delivery of the next IPCC assessment report, that our CMIP7 fast-track remains on schedule: the first data are already openly available, and the full dataset will be published in early 2027 for the Second Global Stock take in 2028.
“I have low expectations on progress towards increasing mitigation ambition, as about 150 parties have submitted new NDCs, covering about three-quarters of emissions; the US has withdrawn its plan, and the petrostates continue to stall negotiations.
“I expect the Pacific to be prominent—about 30 countries backed the Taku Pakasoa Declaration at the Fiji/Tuvalu pre-COP, calling for faster cuts, simpler finance access and ocean protection, especially given the existential consequences of 1.5 °C for them and other SIDS/ LDCs.
“Given the unavoidable nature of many climate impacts, adaptation implementation will be a high priority, and will focus on the operationalisation of the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation. GGA sets targets and indicators for achieving the goals and has proposed a tripling of climate finance. This is where decision ready information based on the best available science is critically needed.”
Conflict of interest statement: “My only conflict is my role as ‘Chair of the World Climate Research programme’ and I will be part of the ‘WMO Delegation’.”
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