Opinion: What threatens Act’s goal of 15 per cent in the next election?

Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving
to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.

OPINION

By comparison, today’s Act Party rally was fairly non-eventful.

No protestors needed to be hauled out of Auckland’s Viaduct Events Centre as they did during Act’s campaign launch at the Civic Theatre in Auckland in September.

Also absent were any rival political candidates disguised by fake moustaches willing to jump up from the audience of 525 people, who’d gathered to hear leader David Seymour and his MPs articulate Act’s achievements while in Government and their goals going forward.

It appears the party has learned from its experience in September. Among the reasons Act charged people $50 to attend, other than to further line its already healthy coffers, was the hope it would dissuade protesters from attending.

It worked, leaving guest speaker and former broadcaster Paul Henry’s desire to educate the audience on why wombats’ poop is cube-shaped as the most unexpected thing to happen. Fun fact – it comes out cube-shaped to ensure it doesn’t roll away so it can be stacked to mark territory and attract other wombats.

But the lack of distractions did provide clear air for Seymour to outline his target of obtaining 15 per cent of the party vote in the 2026 election.

Seymour cited internal party polling which asked people whether they were “interested” in voting for Act on a scale of one to 10. The party considered a response of eight or higher to indicate there was a “very good chance” the person would vote for Act.

The fortnightly polling found on average, 22 per cent of people rated their level of interest in voting for Act to be eight or higher.

Acknowledging it was unlikely 22 per cent of Kiwis will vote for Act in 2026, Seymour said a “noble goal” would be to achieve two-thirds of that – 15 per cent.

“It would complete Act’s transformation from an insurgent small party to the small large party you are helping us build.”

It’s not the first time Seymour has been striving for 15 per cent. In the lead-up to last year’s election, Seymour said private and public polling indicated Act could double its 2020 party vote of 7.6 per cent in 2023.

It wasn’t a completely fanciful target. A 1News poll in mid-August had Act on 13 per cent. A Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll got as high as 14.3 per cent in early September.

However, that proved to be the peak Act descended from until they recorded what would have been a somewhat disappointing 8.6 per cent on election night. Still higher than anything the party had achieved, but a sign of a squandered opportunity.

Several moments contributed to the late decline. Chief among them was Seymour’s suggestion Act would enter into a confidence-only governing arrangement if National didn’t afford Act the policies it wanted to progress. That arrangement would have, hypothetically, meant risking a new election if agreement couldn’t be found regarding the Government’s Budgets, for example.

It’s accepted within Act that tactic backfired as it shook people’s faith in the right-leaning parties’ ability to form a stable government and sent them elsewhere.

Seymour’s comments and subsequent doubling-down on a joke about sending Guy Fawkes in to deal with the Ministry of Pacific Peoples stuck with him, given the party’s policies to get rid of ethnic and gender-focused ministries.

Act and National suffered from how they responded to New Zealand First and its leader Winston Peters. National leader Christopher Luxon left it until late in the campaign to concede he would work with Peters if he needed the numbers.

Seymour, who had said Peters was a “crook” and couldn’t be trusted, was forced into an embarrassing walk-back in which he eventually admitted he too would work with Peters.

Amid Act’s decline a week out from last year’s election, Seymour conceded some of his party’s lessened support was due to his “hard truth-telling” while other parties were “over-promising”. That aligned with the party’s recognition that some of its social media campaigning was also too negative.

But despite all of that, Act made it into Government with its highest result ever and has the opportunity to effect the “real change” it so often calls for.

Achieving that change will be a central factor in how Act’s time in Government is viewed come 2026. All three parties in the coalition Government are beholden to the various targets that have been set, but Act’s strong focus on providing tangible outcomes – like those expected in school attendance – puts the party’s fortunes at risk if they aren’t realised.

National is currently getting all the flak for not delivering on its policy to fund 13 new cancer drugs in this year’s Budget. As the minister responsible for drug-buying agency Pharmac, that could pose an issue for Seymour depending on how that promise evolves.

The benefit Act will derive from Seymour’s new Ministry of Regulation is still unclear. He’s announced the ministry’s first target – unnecessary regulation in early childhood education – and his challenge will be to prove a tangible improvement to services that don’t jeopardise children’s health and safety.

The tenor of the public debate of Act’s controversial Treaty Principles Bill will have a sizeable impact on Seymour’s ability to attract National voters who flirted with Act in 2023.

Act’s base clearly supports the party’s mission to redefine the Treaty’s principles, but there will be many centre-right voters who might be scared off if the debate becomes as hot as Te Pāti Māori promises it will be.

Children’s Minister Karen Chhour has proven a key figure for Act on matters concerning race after standing her ground in the face of attacks she’s received from the Opposition about her reforms of Oranga Tamariki. She was the only MP aside from Seymour to get a standing ovation at today’s rally.

Alongside all the policy goals it has committed to, Act will need to keep its largest caucus ever free of scandal, given the dent in support it suffered after controversial candidates came to light.

Attendees at Act’s rally the Herald spoke to said the coalition Government appeared to be functioning well, despite the differences the three leaders had during the campaign.

Seymour today repeated his view that the coalition was “dangerously collegial”. That will be difficult to maintain when each of the three parties seeks to differentiate themselves during an election year.

In Government, Act has the ability to follow through on its promises for real change. Like the wombats, Seymour will be hoping he’ll be able to stack up all his commitments and attract many more voters come 2026.